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   <title>Guatemala Today</title>
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   <id>tag:www.guatemalaaldia.com,2008:/en//2</id>
   <updated>2008-04-07T21:39:32Z</updated>
   <subtitle>News, politics, and opinion on Guatemala by Juan G. Gutiérrez</subtitle>
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<entry>
   <title>Colom Fires an Influential yet Shadowy Security Official</title>
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   <id>tag:www.guatemalaaldia.com,2008:/en//2.54</id>
   
   <published>2008-04-07T20:43:04Z</published>
   <updated>2008-04-07T21:39:32Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Last week the media reported that President Alvaro Colom has taken a bold and unexpected step in his housecleaning of the government&apos;s security apparatus with the firing of the high-ranking advisor Victor Rivera Azuejo -- a tremendously powerful former Venezuelan...</summary>
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      <name>Editor</name>
      
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      <![CDATA[<a href="http://www.guatemalaaldia.com/en/victorrivera040708.jpg"><img alt="victorrivera040708.jpg" src="http://www.guatemalaaldia.com/en/victorrivera040708-thumb.jpg" width="200" height="110" align="right" hspace="5" vspace="5"/></a>Last week the media <a href="http://www.elsalvador.com/mwedh/nota/nota_completa.asp?idCat=6342&idArt=2233913">reported</a> that President Alvaro Colom has taken <a href="http://www.prensalibre.com/pl/2008/abril/01/229191.html">a bold and unexpected step</a> in his housecleaning of the government's security apparatus with the firing of the high-ranking advisor <a href="http://www.elfaro.net/secciones/Noticias/20070305/noticias11_20070305.asp">Victor Rivera Azuejo</a> -- a tremendously powerful <a href="http://www.jorgepalmieri.com/index.php?day=3&month=4&year=2007">former Venezuelan intelligence officer</a> who has served as a top consultant to the Guatemalan police since 1996 on kidnapping cases and other specialist matters.
 
Rivera, who is also known by his alias "Zacarias," first came under public scrutiny following the brutal slayings of the three Parlacen Congressman from El Salvador in Guatemala.  These murders, carried out by a suspicious organized "death squad" which was also believed to be involved in social cleansing operations, were linked directly to Rivera.  Colom's opponent in the presidential campaign, Gen. Otto Perez Molina, and his chief deputy Roxana Baldetti of the Partido Patriota, filed a complaint before the attorney general, claiming they had proof of Rivera's involvement as a commander of the death squads and other links to organized crime.  A congressional investigation was launched as a result, eventually leading to the resignation of Interior Minister Carlos Vielmann and Chief of Police Erwin Sperisen.  Rivera, however, was able to keep his position thanks to protection from supporters among the elite, as well as Vielmann’s replacement, Adela de Torrebiarte.]]>
      <![CDATA[Several investigative reports by Salvadoran media outlets such as <a href="http://www.elfaro.net/secciones/Noticias/20070319/noticias4_20070319.asp">El Faro</a> discovered further evidence of Rivera's links to criminal groups.  Incredibly, competing newspaper <a href="http://www.elperiodico.com.gt/es/20080407/opinion/51938/">elPeriódico</a> also published an opinion in defense of the alleged death squad operator.

Before coming to work in Guatemala in 1996, Rivera <a href="http://www.jorgepalmieri.com/index.php/post/77/">was a military intelligence adviser</a> to the Duarte government of El Salvador, and was later an adviser to the National Civil Police.  He was forced to flee the country after the Attorney General Manual Cordova Castellanos issued a warrant for his arrest for his alleged obstruction and interference of a murder investigation.

Rivera quickly found refuge in Guatemala, where several powerful business elites had invited him for his expertise in handling kidnappings.  It is believed that these same relationships with Guatemala's most powerful oligarchs had protected him from investigation up until now -- for example, the newspaper <a href="http://www.prensalibre.com/pl/2008/abril/02/opinion.html">Prensa Libre</a> ran an editorial about the story not once mentioning any ties to death squads or social cleansing, but rather demanding that the government explain who will be in charge of handling kidnapping negotiations in his place.

For many observers, Colom's move to fire Rivera represents a courageous first step toward saving Guatemala from becoming a failed state.]]>
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<entry>
   <title>&quot;A Paradise for Organized Crime&quot;</title>
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   <id>tag:www.guatemalaaldia.com,2008:/en//2.53</id>
   
   <published>2008-03-30T17:45:13Z</published>
   <updated>2008-03-30T17:53:09Z</updated>
   
   <summary>There&apos;s an interesting report from Piers Scholfield of the BBC from Guatemala about the &quot;near-total absence of justice&quot; in the country, and the tragic lack of progress of the UN&apos;s Anti-Impunity Commission to begin any substantive work. Dutch Ambassador Teunis...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Juan Guillermo Gutiérrez</name>
      <uri>http://www.guatemalaaldia.com</uri>
   </author>
   
   
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      <![CDATA[<img alt="bbc033008.jpg" src="http://www.guatemalaaldia.com/en/bbc033008.jpg" width="203" height="152" align="left" hspace="5" vspace="5"/>There's an interesting <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7284036.stm">report</a> from Piers Scholfield of the BBC from Guatemala about the "near-total absence of justice" in the country, and the tragic lack of progress of the UN's Anti-Impunity Commission to begin any substantive work.  Dutch Ambassador Teunis Kamper, whose government donated a large sum of money to back the CICIG, told the BBC that the country is "<em>a paradise for organised crime.</em>"

Human rights leader Frank LaRue is also worried about the commission's ability to investigate previous military abuses:  "<em>This government has remilitarised many of the civilian structures that should remain civilian... and they have chosen military people with questionable records in terms of corruption or connections to organised crime.</em>"]]>
      
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</entry>
<entry>
   <title>Colom Inherits a Disadvantage</title>
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   <id>tag:www.guatemalaaldia.com,2008:/en//2.52</id>
   
   <published>2008-03-28T22:48:25Z</published>
   <updated>2008-03-28T22:50:02Z</updated>
   
   <summary>As President Alvaro Colom nears the completion of his first two months in office, he has so far successfully maintained his popularity, and has carried out the difficult balancing act between the ideological extremes to confront the twin scourges which...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Juan Guillermo Gutiérrez</name>
      <uri>http://www.guatemalaaldia.com</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://www.guatemalaaldia.com/en/">
      As President Alvaro Colom nears the completion of his first two months in office, he has so far successfully maintained his popularity, and has carried out the difficult balancing act between the ideological extremes to confront the twin scourges which have ravaged the Republic of Guatemala since the end of the civil conflict:  institutional weakness and insecurity.

Although the president campaigned on an ambitious platform to create 700,000 jobs, build 200,000 homes, and reduce poverty by 20%, his administration will first have to confront the dire lack of resources, extremely low tax collection, and pervasive crime, which have ruthlessly held society hostage for years.  Without quick improvements in these areas, Colom’s big promises will be unlikely to materialize.

For Colom to take Guatemala forward, his administration will need to 1) clearly define to citizens and international partners why impunity persists, 2) build a new, broad consensus in congress on basic reforms, and 3) summon the courage to stand up to organized crime and economic elites in the name of rule of law. 
      It cannot be overemphasized how the notoriously incompetent Oscar Berger administration leaves the new president at a significant disadvantage to confront these critical challenges.  When President Berger assumed power in 2004 following the highest turnout for a presidential election in Guatemala’s democratic history, he boasted of his victory over several candidates that included Alvaro Colom and Efrain Rios Montt promising an end to the impunity enjoyed by criminals, narco traffickers, and organized crime.  Berger’s anti-corruption platform quickly became a joke, as prosecution rates plummeted, violence soared, and critical offices of government came under the control of proxies of organized crime and unscrupulous elites.

Under the watch of the previous government, Guatemala earned the inauspicious #1 title as the country with the highest murder rate of women – “the Colombia of Central America” is how some governments refer to us in private.  According to police figures, more than 6,000 people were murdered in 2006 – up from 2,900 in the year 2000, and less than 2% of these homicide cases end in conviction.  

It is not just drug trafficking and murder that escapes judicial oversight.  White collar crime, corruption, and tax evasion has also flourished dramatically under Berger, leading Amnesty International to characterize Guatemala as a “Corporate Mafia State.”

With this shockingly incompetent performance by the Ministerio Publico, the Fiscal General Juan Luis Florido, who was nominated by Berger, represents the most damaging inheritance for President Colom.

Following Colom’s victory, he held a joint press conference with the Fiscal General in which he expressed his support, but set forth high expectations and specific goals that the MP will have to achieve.  If Florido fails to achieve these goals, it was implied that Colom could begin to organize his ouster, which is more than what President Berger did when he immediately removed the former Fiscal General Carlos de Leon in order to install Juan Luis Florido.

In terms of security, so far Colom has lived up to the tough talk.  On February 12th, he succeeded in getting Congress to pass legislation allowing him to revise the death penalty law, which although is strongly opposed by partners in the European Union, is highly popular among the crime-weary voting public.  He has helped push through the red tape left by Berger slowing down the opening of the CICIG.

But there remain enormous hurdles for Colom to surmount to battle crime issue.  According to Interior Minister Vinicio Gomez, there were 18,744 members of the National Police tasked with public security across a county of some 13 million inhabitants. That&apos;s one policeman for every 2,400 civilians, and one for approximately every 21.77 square kilometers of land - a task he described as “humanly impossible.”  There are just 1,180 people working for the Ministerio Publico, which receives just 7.53% of the paltry annual national budget of $5.2 billion.

Colom’s party UNE has promised big budget increases in the neighborhood of 350 million quetzals to improve the state’s ability to investigate and prosecute crime.  Given that the Berger government ran a high deficit for four years, leaving outstanding debt of more than 23% of the GDP, combined with record high energy prices, the Colom government is under tremendous pressure to cut expenses or to increase revenues.

Thus very quickly, the future success of the new president depends heavily upon his ability to raise the state’s tax revenue in order to fund his security reforms – which still hasn’t reached the minimum 12% of GDP as agreed under the Acuerdos de Paz more than ten years ago.  Guatemala has long been identified as one of the weakest states in terms of tax collection, and Carolina Roca of the SAT recently advised the Colom government that they will have to “sacarle el jugo de los impuestos” because evasion of IVA remains as high 26.1% - well above the regional average.

Colom can begin to repair the extraordinary damage left by Berger by speaking with international trade partners and donors in order to focus the scarce resources where they matter most:  training and professionalization of the police and court system.  It is essential that Colom succeeds in getting Congress to pass to the new Ley Antievasion, which will strengthen the government’s ability to punish evasion and fraud.  It is possible that a new congressional bloc will need to be formed to pursue these basic institutional strengthening policies.  However, even if the president is successful in building sufficient consensus to push forward with his plans to increase funding to the MP, this can only result in a decrease of impunity if the state is able to take on major, high profile cases of powerful and well known violators of the law.  With a gesture like this, the government can communicate in an indisputably clear manner that the rules of the old Berger game no longer apply – that criminals in Guatemala for at last be held accountable for their actions.

The new president may have inherited a difficult job from an incompetent and uncaring administration, but that does not mean that this course can be reversed and that Guatemala can be put on the road to recovery.
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